Newsletter Signup

Syndicate content
AR State Senate Dist 13 Debate - 5/13/10 - Part 1

Aftermath: A New Political Landscape for Arkansas

First, the stats:

Congressional delegation - BEFORE: 5-1 Democrats; AFTER: 4-2 Republicans.

Constitutional officers - BEFORE: 7-0 Democrats; AFTER: 4-3 Democrats.

State House - BEFORE: 72-28 Democrats; AFTER: 55-44 Democrats (1 seat is still pending)

State Senate - BEFORE: 27-8 Democrats; AFTER: 20-15 Democrats

 

It's hard to tell which array of Republican gains is the most impressive: the congressional, constitutional, or state legislative wins.

The congressional victories, at least, were almost entirely expected. Weeks before the election, everyone knew that John Boozman (U.S. Senate) and Tim Griffin (U.S. House, 2nd District) would win seats held by Democrats. We also expected Rick Crawford (U.S. House, 1st District) to win his race. So in these races, there wasn't much to be surprised about on Election Night, except for how wide the margins of victory were.

The constitutional races, meanwhile, could have gone either way. John Thurston won land commissioner by 4 percentage points; Mark Martin (secretary of state) and Mark Darr (lieutenant governor) won by 2 percentage points each. Each of them beat a Democrat who likely would have won by double digits in any election cycle prior to this one. The close victories speak to the power of the GOP label in Arkansas -- and that's a power that Republicans have never had before in this state.

We've talked about it before, but it's worth noting again that the Republicans missed out on even more victories by failing to run candidates for attorney general, treasurer, and auditor. A strong candidate could have defeated Dustin McDaniel, and almost any candidate with an R after their name could have defeated Martha Shoffner and Charlie Daniels.

The GOP gains that most impress me, though, are the ones in the state legislature. Prior to the election, 40 was the Republicans' magic number that they were hoping to achieve in the House. They ended up with 44 and could add one more -- there will be a special election in District 24 (Hot Springs), where the Republican candidate unexpectedly died a few days before the election but still won the race. The Republican Party has never had more than 30 seats in the House -- now they have established themselves as a viable minority party, and they should have a chance to take over the House in 2012.

In the Senate, Republicans swept the 7 contested races, nearly doubling their number of senators. All of their candidates won by double digits. Just as in the House, they have put themselves in position to take over the Senate in 2012.

As impressive as the Republican gains are, they are still in the minority and will have to work across the aisle in order to accomplish anything. It will be interesting to see how the Democrats react to their weakened position. Will they allow Republicans more of a say in legislation, or will they try to maintain a firm grip on the control they have always had?

Governor Mike Beebe's role will become even more pivotal than in previous years. He's a veteran legislator who knows how to work the seats, but he has never dealt with such a split General Assembly. My guess is that Democratic legislators will rely on his leadership more than they ever have, particularly because he won reelection so dominantly.

The new Republican constitutional officers have sparked a lot of fanfare, but they probably won't have much impact on policy. I'm most interested in seeing how Lieutenant Governor-elect Mark Darr defines his role. He has already announced that he will sue the federal government over the health care overhaul, since Beebe and Attorney General McDaniel have not done so. Will the governor and the Democratic-led legislature take him seriously, or will he have to settle for being a maverick with little influence?

The board is set, and the pieces are moving. Only, their movements are more unpredictable than they have ever been. The next few months will be riveting.