It's Election Day, and if you just don't want to wait until tonight to find out who the winners are, let me break it down for you. Am I right? We'll find out soon.

NOTE: Progressive Arkansas does not support or endorse candidates, and these predictions do not constitute endorsements. I'm analyzing the races and telling you who I think will win; I'm not telling you who you should vote for. These predictions are solely my opinion and do not reflect the opinion of the publisher or the magazine as a whole.

Congressional Races

U.S. Senate - John Boozman (R)

After incumbent Blanche Lincoln defeated Bill Halter in the Democratic primary runoff, this race was all over except for the shoutin'. In order to stage a miracle comeback, Lincoln needed Boozman to make a huge gaffe, something similar to the gaffe that his late brother, Fay, made 12 years earlier, allowing Lincoln to win her Senate seat for the first time. Alas, the thoroughly boring GOP congressman ambled through three debates without saying anything embarrassing. Independent candidate Trevor Drown and Green candidate John Gray staged respectable campaigns, but never had the money or influential supporters that the two major-party candidates did. And so Boozman will win easily, becoming only the 2nd Republican ever to be elected to the U.S. Senate in Arkansas.

U.S. House, 1st District - Rick Crawford (R)

Quite frankly, this is the only congressional race that's expected to be close at all -- and predicting the winner appears to be a crapshoot. I'll go with Crawford because he has led in the polls for the entire race. Although the anti-Democrat momentum seems to have slowed somewhat in this district, it's still a major factor. Also, Democratic nominee Chad Causey has angered liberals by running hard to the right in recent weeks. It's possible that Green nominee Ken Adler's presence in the race will pull enough votes away from Causey to prevent him from winning.

U.S. House, 2nd District - Tim Griffin (R)

Most pundits agree that Griffin has run the best congressional campaign in Arkansas this year -- a near-flawless performance. It's unfortunate that he's also the dirtiest congressional candidate in Arkansas this year. A mountain of evidence indicates that while in the Bush White House, Griffin worked to disenfranchise poor voters -- and later, as part of a cover-up of the scheme, he worked to have a competent U.S. attorney sacked so that he could replace him. With such a black record, why is Griffin still leading his Democratic opponent, Joyce Elliott, by double digits in the polls? Well, Elliott hasn't been very ept in attacking his record, and also the statewide media (particularly the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette) have given Griffin a free pass in this area. Also, as I said, Griffin has run a great campaign, and his positions on the issues probably do reflect those of the voters better than Elliott's do.

U.S. House, 3rd District - Steve Womack (R)

The outcome of this race was never in doubt, even back when we didn't know who the GOP nominee would be. If there are any political rules in Arkansas, it's that the 3rd District will always go Republican. Accordingly, the state media has paid little attention to this race. That's a pity, because Womack and his Democratic opponent, David Whitaker, are both fine candidates in different ways. Womack boasts a thick resume of relevant experience that gives him a deep understanding of domestic and foreign policy. Whitaker has displayed a truly independent spirit, showing that he is neither in the Obama-Reid-Pelosi camp nor the Blue Dog camp. I would like to see Whitaker run for public office again after this election. Womack will win going away.

U.S. House, 4th District - Mike Ross (D)

Ross is Arkansas' only incumbent U.S. Representative to seek reelection. Although he has forged a reputation as the quintessential Blue Dog Democrat, many have wondered whether he would fall victim to this year's anti-incumbent mood. GOP nominee Beth Anne Rankin has run a decent campaign, though she also seems to display a shallow understanding of the issues. Ross has run his campaign aggressively, taking no chances, going directly after Rankin while reasserting his conservative credentials. Rankin may get within single digits, but that's about the best she can hope for; Ross will win easily.

Statewide Races

Governor - Mike Beebe (D)

Beebe is one of the most popular governors in America and has suffered little from the prevalent anti-Democrat backlash. Republican challenger Jim Keet gained some traction during the summer as he focused on reducing the size of government and battling Washington intrusions in Arkansas. But Keet was ultimately saddled with various problems with his personal taxes, which halted his momentum. In the end, Beebe probably would have won even if Keet had staged a campaign for the ages.

Lieutenant Governor - Shane Broadway (D)

This is a complete toss-up, so I'm only guessing. Broadway is the establishment candidate, with a long record of experience in the Capitol. He also has the firm support of Governor Beebe, who appeared last week in a TV ad for Broadway that could prove pivotal to the race's outcome. On the other hand, Mark Darr, the GOP nominee, has run a strong campaign emphasizing his role as a political outsider -- he has never run for office before. Darr also vows to fight the national Democratic agenda, though it's unclear how effectively he'll be able to do that in such a powerless office. This race could be decided by a single percentage point, or one of the candidates could break away and win by double digits. Almost no outcome will surprise me.

Secretary of State - Mark Martin (R)

This one's pretty much a coin flip also. Pat O'Brien, the Democrat, has run the stronger campaign and has avoided being saddled with ethical/legal issues. Martin has ethical/legal issues in spades, but none of the major state media outlets have paid any attention. So who has the edge? It's a tough call. O'Brien has battled through a primary and runoff earlier this year, so plenty of voters have already seen him on their ballots. On the other hand, Martin is a Republican in a year that favors Republicans. I'll say that this race tips to Martin because he has the good fortune to have the same name as a popular race car driver who's also from Arkansas.

Attorney General - Dustin McDaniel (D)

The next three races have a common theme: the Republicans couldn't find anyone to run for them, so the Democrats' only challengers are Green Party candidates. That means McDaniel gets a free pass to another term as AG and sets himself up nicely for his 2014 gubernatorial bid. Rebekah Kennedy, his Green opponent, is intelligent and articulate, but like all third-party candidates in this state, she has no money.

Treasurer - Martha Shoffner (D)

A lot of folks thought Shoffner was in serious danger of losing her reelection bid when, this summer, she made the biggest gaffe of the year -- saying that she felt constitutional officers were entitled to tax-free personal use of their state vehicles, and calling Governor Beebe's state trooper chauffeur a "manservant." A GOP opponent almost certainly would have beaten Shoffner after that, but . . . oh yeah, no Republicans saw fit to run. Shoffner's last-minute challenger is Bobby Tullis, a former Democratic state representative who finagled his way onto the Green Party ticket. He'll get some votes, but he has no shot of beating the incumbent treasurer.

Auditor - Charlie Daniels (D)

The Methuselah of Little Rock will get to totter over from his current office (secretary of state) to a new one. I'm not thrilled with Daniels, but I'm even less thrilled with his opponent, Mary Hughes-Willis (G). Not only has she no vision for the auditor's office, she says she can't even find out what all of its responsibilities are (apparently there's not much online about the state auditor). Despite her professed ignorance, she will get some votes, likely because most people have no idea what the auditor does or who the candidates are. This is probably the lowest-profile statewide office in Arkansas.

Land Commissioner - L.J. Bryant (D)

This office isn't terribly exciting, either, but somehow the election for it has become fascinating. Bryant won a drama-filled runoff over State Representative Monty Davenport, and now he faces Republican John Thurston, an inexperienced but surprisingly strong candidate. Bryant has won accolades from state media outlets for his vision for innovation; Thurston, meanwhile, says he's also willing to try new things but wants to be fiscally cautious. I think Thurston has a shot to win this one, but because Bryant has already survived the primary and runoff this year, and because he has uniform support from the media, I say he pulls it out.

Supreme Court, Position 6 - Karen Baker

Baker nearly won this race without a runoff, getting 48% of the vote in May. Tim Fox has run a hard campaign that has recently attacked Baker directly, hoping to siphon away her support. Many conservatives dislike Fox because he made the famous "gay foster parents decision" a few years ago, but I'm not sure that Baker would have ruled any differently had she been in his shoes. A lot of liberals, on the other hand, dislike Baker because of a debatable role she played in an obscure case 15 years ago involving the editor of the state's most prominent left-wing newspaper. Because Baker received such strong support in the first election, I think she'll hold on to this one and win by a decent margin.