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AR State Senate Dist 13 Debate - 5/13/10 - Part 1

Recent Congressional Polls: GOP Leads Everywhere but the 4th District

Recent polling in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House races shows Republicans leading by double digits in every race except the 4th Congressional District, where incumbent Mike Ross leads by 18 points.

The biggest lead belongs to GOP Congressman John Boozman, who is challenging Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln in her bid for reelection. Boozman's lead in the polls (38 points) is actually greater than Lincoln's total support (27 points). The number of undecided voters in the poll is surprisingly small, at 3%. The poll was taken by Rasmussen, a firm that many political observers believe is slightly biased in favor of Republicans.

The four U.S. House polls were all taken by Talk Business, in partnership with Hendrix College, and are not considered to have any partisan slant. In the 1st Congressional District, Rick Crawford leads Chad Causey 48-32, despite the recent embarrassing revelation that Crawford filed for bankruptcy 16 years ago. Causey, meanwhile, has run into trouble for trying to make Crawford's childhood as an army brat into a campaign issue.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Tim Griffin leads state Senate Majority Leader Joyce Elliott 52-35. Both candidates in that race have thus far been polite to each other and stayed away from personal attacks. Griffin has a huge edge among independents, a likely result of the perception of Elliott as one of the most liberal members of the state legislature.

In the 3rd Congressional District, Rogers Mayor Steve Womack has a comfortable lead over David Whitaker, 55-31. This seat has stayed in GOP hands for decades and was never expected to be in danger of switching parties, but Womack has nonetheless continued to campaign hard after winning a close runoff for the Republican nomination in June.

In the 4th Congressional District, Ross (the only incumbent U.S. Representative seeking reelection) maintains a 49-31 lead over Beth Anne Rankin, a former Miss Arkansas. Unlike most Democrats, Ross has not suffered much harm from the growing unpopularity of the national Democratic Party, because he has stayed connected to his constituents and opposed the federal health care law.

Here are full percentage results from the five polls, along with links to complete breakdowns:

U.S. Senate (Rasmussen poll, Aug. 18)

John Boozman (R) - 65%
Blanche Lincoln (D) - 27%
Other candidate (anonymous) - 4%
Undecided - 3%

U.S. House 1st District (Talk Business poll, Aug. 17)

Rick Crawford (R) - 48%
Chad Causey (D) - 32%
Ken Adler (G) - 4%
Undecided - 16%

U.S. House 2nd District (Talk Business poll, Aug. 17)

Tim Griffin (R) - 52%
Joyce Elliott (D) - 35%
Lance Levi (I) - 3%
Lewis Kennedy (G) - 1%
Undecided - 9%

U.S. House 3rd District (Talk Business poll, Aug. 25)

Steve Womack (R) - 55%
David Whitaker (D) - 31%
Undecided - 14%

U.S. House 4th District (Talk Business poll, Aug. 25-26)

Mike Ross (D) - 49%
Beth Anne Rankin (R) - 31%
Joshua Drake (G) - 4%
Undecided - 16%